I’ve always been interested in media. When the TV Guide Fall preview came out I’d study the summary of every new show and try to guess which ones would be successes and which ones would get canceled after a single season. What was my over/under? No idea, but it was less about what would appeal to me and what I thought was good, and what had a chance of doing well in the long run.
No one put that idea in my head. It just seemed like a natural skill to develop.
As I’ve gotten older I’ve gotten out of the prediction game and gravitated more toward asking why certain things resonate with a wide audience or why they fail. Mostly movies. Right now we’re seeing a lot of failures. And just like I wasn’t privy to advance screeners of the new primetime lineups, I’m not able to see any of the movies before or when they hit theaters. So I read about them, I listen to podcasts discussing them, and I look at the reactions.
It’s not pretty.
Last weekend The Flash bombed with potential fans and professional critics alike. No one went to see the new Pixar movie. Transformers quickly went from the shiny new toy to the scrapyard to join my beloved Fast X. We all know the final Indiana Jones movie will collect more dust than dollars. At this point I’m not sure even Christopher Nolan, who has a pretty good record, will do well with anyone. Tom Cruise and Mission: Impossible might be the only hit of the summer, and that’s just empty calories.
Is it franchise fatigue? The promise of streaming? As always, I have a theory.